39 comentarios en “¿Qué deporte es la MEJOR inversión? Desglose de Brett Oppenheim”

1. In recent years, I think the answer is basketball but who knows what the future holds? I see soccer only increasing in popularity in the coming years in the u.s. so that could eventually overtake basketball. The only sports I don't collect are hockey and racing.

2. YOUTUBE WOULD NOT LET ME POST IT ALL AT ONCE, SO IT IS BROKE INTO MULTIPLE POST. I PUT THE MAIN POINTS IN ALL CAPS PRIOR TO EACH OF MY ISSUES WITH THE ANALYSIS HERE, BUT I DO THINK THIS ALGORITHM (?) IS A REALLY SMART WAY TO INTERPRET DATA, BUT I THINK HE UNCONSCIOUSLY DERIVED THE RESULTS HE WANTED BY IGNORING SOME THINGS I MENTION BELOW.

   Man, I really like this guy and actually I love the show and he's as sharp as they come. I also appreciate someone who is so willing to put themselves out there. However, I must say this ratio thing has some gaping holes in it. I actually agree with him on vintage baseball. There is going to be a huge drop off in vintage baseball demand, same with basketball and football. This is why I think the huge run into vintage right now is wrong headed. I love it! I collect it! I have Ruth's, Satchel Paige, Jackie's, etc., but I think the kids are totally unaware of these people. Even my nephew, who is an athlete, I asked him about babe Ruth, he said, "I think I have heard of him?!" He's 16! But, the whole basis for him abandoning baseball is demand. I am sorry, I just don't see demand for vintage soccer. I do not see it at all. The hobby has grown temporarily obsessed with scarcity but placing almost no value on demand, which I believe demand is the more important data point of the two. This is why the whole ultra modern vs vintage arguments are lacking context. The following main points are some areas that I think need to be considered for this type of analysis to work and a little bit of pushback on the whole, ultra modern negativity that is so abundant right now:

3. THE HOBBY IS UNIQUELY BIASED TOWARDS ULTRA MODERN RIGHT NOW AND IT IS BUILDING A LARGE BASE OF COLLECTORS WHO ARE REALLY ONLY INTERESTED IN THE ULTRA MODERN SIDE OF COLLECTING.

   1. The hobby exploded in the last 6 years. I have heard indications that we are 5x now what we were in 2017. I don't know how true that is but I would love some data on hobby growth, I have searched everywhere and I can find dollars, graded cards, but not actual collectors. Obviously, we are forced to speculate a bit on these things based off those variables that we know, like graded card % increases from '17 to now. But the people who came into this hobby during THIS MOMENT are always going to be biased toward THESE PLAYERS. The internet has brought THESE PLAYERS into our homes like never before. We watch them on Twitter every day, we speak about them with our friends on social media in groups on facebook and by friends I mean, thousands of strangers that belong to groups we are in. We know their clothing, their habits and we are obsessed with THESE PLAYERS, more so than at any time in history. So I want to make the point that, THESE PLAYERS are also popular because the culture has made them popular and part of our collecting them is based on that. But it is important to acknowledge that the recent growth in the hobby is very focused on modern and ultra modern players and to assume that they will gravitate toward what should be the best value, may be wrongheaded. Someone in the comments below makes a great point about the hobby not being so linear. This is not real-estate and he is applying a real-estate mind to it. He answered the question about assuming people will run toward these scarce cards that seem to be more valuable based on this algorithm, but then said he wouldn't go into vintage baseball because the youth are not going that direction, but for some reason people are going to flock to vintage soccer? I understand you need far less people to move in to that space to gain value and it is in its infancy of expansion in the US and Canada, but I would guess most people moving in couldn't name a single vintage player outside of Pele before they moved in. The demand has to be there and to assume that the demand will automatically flow from ultra modern soccer to vintage soccer is possible but I think more likely from him saying this in this show, than organically. We will see how often this gets repeated. But organically, without some fomenting, I don't see it. I cant think of a single friend that can name more than 3 vintage soccer players.

4. THE MYTH THAT A PLAYERS SKILL LEVEL IS THE ULTIMATE DETERMINATING FACTOR OF THE CARD VALUE (EX: HOW COULD A JA MORANT BE WORTH MORE THAN A JORDAN ROOKIE?)

   2. This is a common notion that a players card values should be directly associated with how skilled of a player they were. This is not the case at all. The Joker is possibly the most valuable basketball player to have on your team right now and his cards are very, meh. Also, look at charles barkley, his cards have really good value, well beyond what his rankings are in the game. How about Tim Duncan? Then if we are talking actual skills, I am sorry, but to compare players from 50 years ago to today, they'd get absolutely dominated in most situations. I think a lot of people are looking at the rookie classes from 2017 to present and seeing something extraordinary. The current crop of rookies defies anything I have ever seen in my 30 plus years of being a basketball junky. If you stuck, Luka, Ja, Edwards, Maxey, Zion (healthy) in any point in history, they'd be wall to wall coverage. They would be seen as out of this world. They would be seen very much like a Jordan in every period but his (jordan is the greatest). The competition is beyond anything we have ever seen and as an old boy, I used to push back hard against this, new players would dominate old players, until about 2018 and I had to start acknowledging that something is going on with basketball right now. The level of improvement in the game of basketball is far exceeding the other two big sports. I don't know why, but the moves and skill set seems to have had some sort of paradigm shift. So, I think its possible that we are seeing the best players right now, but relative to their competition, the stats will remain fairly consistent with the past, maybe worse. I doubt that this period just randomly yielded this. I think this is a dynamic that may be here to stay and the sport of basketball just figured some things out.

5. THE DESIGNS AND CONTENTS OF THE MODERN DAY CARDS ADDS EXPONENTIAL VALUE AND AN RPA SHOULD NOT BE COMPARED TO A BASE 1951 BOWMAN. ALSO THE SERIAL NUMBERED OR LIMITED PRODUCED SETS IS STILL SCARCITY, EVEN THOUGH IT IS MANUFACTURED AND THIS VARIABLE IS GOING TO THROW OFF ANY RATIOS FROM THE ULTRA MODERN CARDS COMPARED TO THE VINTAGE.

   3. The look of the cards is a part of the value. He mentions this and he eludes to them being so tempting he can barely contain himself from buying them. Yes, this is a thing. The cards have become extremely well designed and things like patches, autos and serial numbers have changed the dynamic of things. Yes, there are so many different kind of cards and this is not a bad thing. It has created weird little niches in all the various brands. Is it so implausible that these cards have excess demand because of the appearances relative to the old very plain grandparents of the past? The art of a card is a major factor today. Before you go saying that doesn't mean anything, tell the multi million dollar marvel card holders that, tell Pokémon and all the TCG collectors that. Those cards have value based in many cases on appearance. The aesthetics of these ultra modern cards is a big part of their value. The scarcity of the numbered cards is a big part of their value, its manufactured yes, but so what? The scarcity of PMGs are manufactured. Manufactured scarcity has been going on forever and it still makes things scarce. But to wrap this part up, yes, (1)a player worn patch on a card will be a multiplier, can you imagine Babe Ruth PAs? They would probably sell for multiples of the 52 Mantle. Which brings me to a quick point, Mantle was great, but statistically nowhere near as great as Ruth, Willie Mays, Ted Williams and probably about 10 more players, yet his cards are the most valuable. It doesn't always matter what their stats are. (2)The scarcity in the numbered cards and sets is still scarcity. (3) The on card autos create a multiplier effect, a tremendous one. (4) Then lastly the general aesthetics of the cards are almost TCG in themselves and it would be wrongheaded to assume that this isn't creating a multiplier component in the modern card market, relative to the vintage market. You can see it in the cracked ice cards that sell for almost as much as the gold because the aesthetics are phenomenal. You can see, for example, newer Larry Bird patch autos go for more money than his flagship rookie card. That is a testament to all the things I mentioned here.

6. THE PRINT RUN BOGEY MAN IS DRAMATICALLY OVERSTATED. TOO MANY PEOPLE HAVE TAKEN THIS AND SO WRONGLY INFERED THAT WE ARE IN SOME SORT OF JUNK WAX CRISES, WHICH IS SO HYPERBOLIC AND NOT EVEN CLOSE TO BEING ACCURATE. BUT AGAIN, THIS PERSUADES THE THINKING OF SO MUCH OF THIS NEGATIVE SENTIMENT TOWARD MODERN AND IS ALWAYS THE ARGUMENT TO GO INTO VINTAGE. THERE ARE AROUND 7K TY COBBS PRE 1915 GRADED AND AROUND 40 VARIATIONS OF HIM. I AM GUESSING WELL OVER 10K IF YOU CONSIDER THE UNGRADED CARDS OUT THERE. TY COBB PLAYED WITHIN 45 YEARS OF THE CIVIL WAR TO PUT THINGS INTO PERSPECTIVE.

   4. The print run thing is totally overstated and wrongly so on this channel a lot. Rookie print runs of serial numbered cards have only gone up about 10% a year on average. During the same period demand for these exact products are growing considerably more than the actual print run increase. This big pull back has largely resulted in a lot of fear porn and people saying the very things that this guy said at the end as well as Tpot and Geoff. The constant repeating of the "oh my god print runs" thing has taken on a life of its own. All the content creators started parroting these claims and the hobby is still very small and this little show finds its way into the minds of almost all of us, either through the show or a content creator that has taken the shows information and then ran with it. Since Tpot and Geoff started repeating the print run thing so much, the amount of people that falsely believe we are in a junk wax era is unbelievable. Anyone who collected during that period knows how wildly inaccurate that comparison is. There are probably more than 2 million 89 upper deck Griffey Jr's printed. That is just one of his rookies, all of them have similar runs. This is not 10% of the junk wax era and I do wish that these guys would set the record straight on that. The doom and gloom stuff gets hits though and I understand that. Just the other day I watched Geoff make the statement that he bought the Lebron James rookie serial numbered cards because they had so much less of them compared to now. I have actually done the work on that and I don't believe that statement is accurate. I would be willing to say, without a doubt, that THERE ARE MORE LEBRON JAMES ROOKIE SERIAL NUMBERED CARDS THAN ZION WILLIAMS ROOKIE SERIAL NUMBERED CARDS. Now I don't think he meant anything nefarious but its an example of how hyperbolic the claims of overprinting have gotten. If a rookie class from 2003 has more serial numbered cards than a rookie class from 2019, is all this fear about overprinting valid? Yes, the printing is growing each year with Panini, but relative to the Fleer, Upper deck and cards of the 2000s it is not the case that we are printing above those levels, as far as serial numbers are concerned and I am speaking about basketball rookies, which lets be real, that is what we are all buying. I have been working on data for months on this stuff and my initial intent was to show how much printing is occurring. The further I get into it and compare it to other years and the past, the more I am acknowledging that this is a subject people have just ran with without really diving into it, other than surface stuff.

   Again, its important to repeat that I don't think that Geoff or any of these guys are intentionally disseminating misleading material, I just think that they have not really done the analysis of say, "TOTAL LEBRON ROOKIE SERIAL NUMBERED CARDS VS ZION WILLIAMS TOTAL ROOKIE SERIAL NUMBERED CARDS". I think that little analysis would assuage a lot of peoples hysteria on the overprinting thing, WHICH NEEDS TO ABATE AND IS GETTING WORSE EACH YEAR because Panini does not care anymore, they are just selling boxes. But the information this team brings to the card world is really amazing and they have actually totally changed the hobby, in my opinion, in a very good way!

7. @Geoff what are some great places to buy vintage soccer wax boxes? Great episode and I’d love to know where to explore these options. Is vintage soccer wax available? What would you consider buying?

8. I hear Brett's points, and I think that if you were looking at collecting solely as a way to get the biggest ROI, his approach probably makes sense. But his approach depends on a direct linear relationship between fandom, card collecting, and value, and there are reasons to believe that that relationship is not really linear. 1)With baseball (and I think to a degree with hockey as well), interest in history and card collecting is part of being a fan in a way that it isn't with football and basketball (and probably soccer). Aaron Judge's home run chase is a big deal to most baseball fans, who not only know the record is, but have strong opinions on what should be considered the record. What statistical record means as much to football or basketball fans? 2)Vintage cards aren't really comparable the way modern cards are, because while all sports have 1986 Topps, all sports do not have a T206 set, or a 1933 Goudey set. You can't switch from T206 baseball to T206 basketball. Baseball has sets that are unique for their history, artistic value, and rarity, that cannot be substituted. I realize most people invest in star and GOAT cards, but baseball has lots of people who still collect commons to complete vintage sets. How many football and basketball collectors collect vintage commons? 3)The numbers on baseball's popularity aren't great, but based on the numbers, football has been more popular for 50 years already – but Unitas isn't worth more than Mays. For all of baseball's lack of popularity, the Dodgers, in the city this video was shot in, will draw 3.9 million fans this year. LAFC drew about 323K last year. The Lakers drew a bit under 800K. Are all of those 3.9 million old, white men? After all, the US population is about 19% Latino, and there are way more Latino stars in baseball than in basketball or football.

9. There's also the thesis that all of these modern cards see a market value decline in the coming decades. Soccer is indeed a global game, and its fans are global. But sports card collecting is largely an American, Canadian and (to a lesser extent) British thing. Messi's appeal is global, the appeal of his high-value cards are not.

   Have fun with it all, but to build wealth, buy real assets: real estate, commodities, land, gold.

   All that said, I think SPI is a good dude, and puts out solid content.

10. Some all time bad takes in this 😂

11. This video single handedly made me purchase my first PSA graded item. And it’s a rookie 1995 PSA 9 David beckham. I’m not to interested in the value as I’m an avid Manchester Utd fan living in Manchester so it’s very sentimental to me.

12. I disagree on a lot of the thought process. Nobody is going to care about soccer players from 40 years ago. The reason baseball is losing interest in the U.S. is because of the pace of play and the limited offense and action. Have you ever watched a soccer game in its entirety? Much of the same if not worse. Most who go to soccer games are those who are looking to get drunk and riot. This country will always be football first. Look at baseball tobacco cards for example… Nobody on the planet has seen a single player live pre 1930… Yet an sgc 1 in some cases sell for thousands. Soccer also is a very low scoring game and its hard for a single player to take over a game. I have no idea who the goal or assist leader is in soccer…. I can immediately give you the answer in any other major sport. Baseball broke the color barrier and has the most cherished history of all sports. Vintage will only keep gaining value and momentum in all sports as the smart collectors have dumped their modern for vintage… Including Geoff.

13. Soccer is like watching paint dry.

14. Still say UFC or mma cards….huge & growing in Brazil, China, Russia and all throughout Middle East. There are far less fighters compared to 1000+ soccer players. In a relatively 25 short year history of UFC…..look at growth internationally…… and fighting is the world's oldest sport. It's today's gladiators.

15. Jeez Brad is an absolute unit

16. Late to the party but im a 30yr Aussie born and raised and vintage baseball means loads to me. Mind you this is a country thats strong in Rugby League, Union, Cricket and Australian rules football. As well as Basketball both our league and NBA. But I would go nuts over an Ernie Banks or Wagner ect. compared to much else. But it isn't super popular to collect out here but I do love vintage baseball because there is great back storytelling to those and the players too

17. Dude Brett is a smart guy. Totally changed my perspective on investing.

18. If anyone is interested in vintage soccer, I have a YT channel and discord with hundreds of people from all over the world sharing their knowledge (including the guest of this episode)!

19. Great video and great insights! Stoked to see more excitement around collecting soccer cards 🙂

20. Wow. One of the best episodes on sports card data, if not the best, I have ever seen. And that's basically all I watch on YouTube, lol. Seriously insightful here.

21. Hope to see you add more vintage to your collection and channel. Soccer and cricket are the two most popular sports in the world. Both have awesome vintage card offerings going back to the late 1800s!!

22. Look for mint vintage hall of fame rookies and get them graded if their cards are worth enough. Also rare junk wax inserts will be bigger and bigger. low pops

23. Love it for the long term investor. I don't think people want to hold on cards for a decade. That is me though. Look at non sports cards like Nintendo cards and Star Wars cards. Elvis… and so on. Just think of something famous and see if they have a card. And junk wax in mint form is huggggeeee

24. Thank you Jesus Bless. Ultra Modern is good. However, Ultra Modern will be Modern in a few years

25. Market cap is a much better way to measure it. Not the 100th card nonsense.

26. Also, the Soccer is the world’s sport and will catch fire here has been going on since the USA World Cup in 1994 … 28-years later still waiting for this large breakout here in the USA. Potential, yes, but baseball reigns supreme.

27. 1930-1956 vintage baseball is the safest play by far … demand high, golden era of baseball and limited supply.

28. Investors need to focus on international! That’s where the big bucks will be exchanged! F1? People are clueless focusing on Schumacher when they should be focused on Senna/Prost/Lada etc soccer? Messi/Maradona/pele? Come on! Garrincha/Beckenbauer/cruyff/Eusebio/etc

29. Soccer Definetly has so many 90s gems with low pops

30. thank you for the UFC love

31. I'm done sitting tight for the award advance since i acquire $36,000 every 14 days of my investment.

32. Baseball isn’t going anywhere. Its home is the country that made card collecting, it’s an international sport, all socioeconomic demographics partake in the sport, and people who love baseball LOVE baseball. An obsession amongst baseball fans with stats/history (it’s a stats-driven game and has a rich history) is a major factor too, and people want a tangible representation of what they love. Card collecting comes naturally as a result

33. Fishing is probably as big of a sport as most any of these. Don’t see people buying fishing cards. There is a reason they are collectively called baseball cards. Not all sports are equal, it is a nice pitch though.

34. Very interesting. Nice video. Need some follow ups on this.

35. The value of Schumacher's rookie PSA 10 is insanely low considering how good he was and most important, the low population of the card — almost the same as a Jordan rookie PSA 10.

36. I love these guys that just got back into the market and are speculating based off the last couple of years. People are speculating on everything these days! Anyone that has been a true collector for 10+ years, knows that even football and basketball were not worth much or even collected 4-5 years back (especially football…..no one even cared about it and now Herbert is the man……somehow). Baseball has always been at the top, which is why people generically refer to cards in general as "baseball cards". No one in the US cares about Soccer and I don't see that changing. I do agree to stay away from all of this modern/ultra modern stuff in any sport. That will all be down huge when all the youngsters get out of flipping. Vintage baseball is and will always reign supreme. Always buy when the price is right.

37. I vote boxing and MMA personally! MMA is in its infancy still even with all the amazing events so far. And old boxing cards are just nonexistent compared to every other sport. Love to see what the stats show though!

38. It all makes sense, but when it comes to investing in Sports Cards and which Player to invest in, one thing even the most perfect data model cannot show, is the Player's "Appeal" for lack of a better word. Take the Q rating in Hollywood. The Q Score, or Q rating, simply put, is the familiarity and appeal of the Celebrity, Brand, Company etc… and is the driving force behind advertising, marketing, endorsements ie., $$$$. Q Scores can change all the time. Tom Cruise was the #1 draw in Hollywood until some antics caused his Q rating to plummet, and he was irrelevant for 6-8 years, and now he has recovered and is a major draw again.

    Same with Sports Cards. The reason why a 24 year old Collector is buying a $10,000 Zion card over a Pele Auto, a Messi RC, or 10 Schumacher PSA 10 RCs is simply that Zion's familiarity and appeal dwarfs the familiarity and appeal of the other GOATS to that Collector at that particular time. Q Rating. It is what makes people clammer for Conor McGregor over Lidell. It is what drives who we buy, even if it doesn't make sense from a logical data driven approach.

39. Good conversation but it's in a funnel…Baseball will ALWAYS be the most collected and sold sports card. It has been historically and it always be in the future. There are many more games to watch and always will be and regionally in many many markets in the USA it's the highest rated sport each year (with overall watched sport watched per household).

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